Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Trouble Brewing for Pearce and Wilson?

In this off-election year, many spend a lot of time reading the polls to try to figure out which party enters the upcoming election year with an advantage.

New Mexico Reps Heather Wilson and Stevan Pearce are probably already a little concerned that the President, to whom they successfully connected themselves during their reelections in in 2004, is facing serious trouble in his approval ratings with voters.

But even more worrisome for Pearce and Wilson are the polling numbers that show that voters around the nation are more likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress than a Republican. It's not unusual for Democrats and Republicans to trade-off or fare equally in the question, "if the election for Congress were held today would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat?" as they did in 1998 or 2004. In 2002, the GOP led in this question by a couple of points and in 2000 , the dems led by a couple of points on election day. Either way, this question is indicative of how much voters want to "throw 'da bums out" of Congress.

But recently, dems have broken away with 5-7 point leads over Republicans on the question over whether voters would support a democrat or a republican for Congress next year. Even more interesting, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows, over time, that a majority of voters want to vote for someone besides their current representative.

It's hard to trust one or two individual polls, but when a bunch of them are all trending in the same direction, there tends to be some merit to their results.

For Pearce and Wilson, being an incumbent Repubican running in a competitive swing district is not not the best place to be when voters are looking for a change in Congress and are unhappy with the Republican President.

You can find a lot of this information on the Polling Report website that gathers polling information from around the nation. (link)

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